Summary of the book "AI 2041" - By Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan

Key Concepts in this book:

1. AI can help you improve your life, but it can also turn your data into a weapon.
2. Deepfakes will be so convincing by 2041 that detecting fraud will be nearly impossible.
3. People will be able to learn in new ways thanks to AI partners.
4. For the COVID generation, AI will change healthcare.
5. The distinction between actual and imaginary worlds will be blurred by mixed reality.
6. Self-driving cars have the potential to alter our transportation networks, but perfecting the technology is difficult.
7. Humanity faces an existential threat from autonomous weaponry.
8. Automation is causing a labour shortage.
9. To some extent, AI can improve your happiness.

Who can benefit the most from this book:

• Entrepreneurs wanting to learn about how AI will transform the world of work.
• Sci-fi lovers interested in exploring techno utopias and dystopias.
• People curious about how societies are affected by changing technologies.

What am I getting out of it? Learn how artificial intelligence (AI) will change our lives over the next two decades.

It often feels as if the modern world is already a science fiction fantasy. Who'd have guessed that one day you'd be able to request a song from your household appliances, or that you'd have a computer in your pocket that would remind you when it's time to go for a walk?

But this is only the start. The advancement of deep learning and natural language acquisition will accelerate AI advancements. Self-driving cars and weapons are already in the works. Deepfake films and virtual reality games are getting so convincing that it's difficult to tell the difference between fiction and reality.

Each of the following concept begins with a short, fictitious scenario about what the world may look like in 2041 — that is, after another 20 years of AI progress – followed by a study of the societal implications of these advances. They'll work together to help you get ready for the AI revolution.

• You'll learn why we don't yet have fully self-driving cars.
• How social media corporations use your data.
• And why deepfakes are so dangerous in this summary.

1. AI can help you improve your life, but it can also turn your data into a weapon.

In 2041, Nayana's family in Mumbai signed up with a new insurance business called Ganesh Insurance, which drastically reduced their insurance payments. What's the catch? They had to consent to give the company access to all of their personal information.

Ganesh told the family to use a specific set of applications for everything from investing to discovering the greatest supermarket prices, and their phones were continuously pinging with suggestions for the next few weeks. Her grandfather was encouraged to drive more carefully by the applications, and her father was nagged so often about his smoking that he eventually quit. Their insurance premiums decreased with each healthy decision they made. It appeared to be a win-win situation for everyone.

However, when Nayana fell in love with a man from a less affluent neighbourhood, the family's insurance costs skyrocketed. The AI had deduced that he was of a lower social rank and perceived this as a threat to the family's health.

The takeaway here is that AI can assist you in optimizing your life, but it can also be used to weaponize your data.

Nayana's narrative is a terrifying example of how artificial intelligence might perpetuate discrimination that currently exists in society. Deep learning is one of the most important AI advancements in the recent decade. Computers can make predictions, classify data, and recognize patterns thanks to deep learning. Facebook employs deep learning to provide personalized suggestions and maximize the amount of time you spend on their network. The technology can precisely forecast what will engage you by studying every click you make and comparing your data to that of millions of others in their system.

Deep learning has a lot of potentials. AI is capable of analyzing millions of data points and making correlations that would be impossible for a person to make. AI, on the other hand, lacks the delicacy and complexity of human thought. Personal experience, abstract conceptions, or common sense are all out.

Furthermore, AI is susceptible to bias and discrimination. The app didn't realize in Nayana's case that her love interest was from a different "caste" and that the match would be considered socially unacceptable. However, it was nonetheless stated that the match would be a "danger" to Nayana's family's health by evaluating his family's data and following where he lived. Deep learning will only get more popular and powerful in the next years. In the near future, one of our most pressing concerns will be how to make it helpful to society as a whole.

2. Deepfakes will be so convincing by 2041 that detecting fraud will be nearly impossible.

Amaka was frightened. A nefarious firm called Ljele had asked him to build a deepfake movie for them using his talents as an expert programmer. He was required to create a video of a renowned Nigerian politician admitting to unethical activities. If Amaka refused, the corporation threatened to release a phoney film of her kissing another man in a nightclub if she refused. This might land him in prison, causing him and his family even more hardships.

Here's the main point: Deepfakes will be so convincing by 2041 that it will be difficult to detect them.

A video of former President Barack Obama calling President Donald Trump a "total dipshit" went viral online in 2018, provoking outrage. What's the catch? It wasn't real — it was a deepfake developed by Buzzfeed to demonstrate what might be done with AI technology and to caution readers not to believe everything they saw.

To create the technique for producing deepfakes, programmers had to first teach computers how to interpret and understand photos. So they looked to the human brain for inspiration, which includes a visual cortex that receives information about an image before sending it to the neocortex, which processes it and assigns more complicated meaning to what's being viewed. Designers constructed a convolutional neural network, or CNN, using this concept.

A Generative Adversarial Network, or GAN, is a type of technology that comprises two CNNs and is used to construct deepfakes. One of them is a "forger," which examines tens of millions of pixels in each image it encounters, identifying the image's unique properties. After analyzing photographs of dogs, for example, the forger can create a phoney dog image. It sends this to the network's second CNN, which functions as a type of "detective." It compares the false image to actual ones and alerts the forger if there are any discrepancies. The forger then improves the image and sends it back to the investigator with feedback. This cycle is repeated millions of times until the artificial dog is virtually indistinguishable from a genuine one. This method can also be used to make incredibly convincing deepfake films and photos.

Of course, this has the potential to be dangerous. Deepfakes can be used as political weapons to discredit candidates or spread propaganda, as Amaka's narrative illustrates. They can also be used to blackmail or intimidate people. In the real world, porn sites are inundated with deepfake porn portraying celebrities' faces in 2019.

To combat deepfakes, programmers have been racing to develop algorithms that can detect irregularities that the naked eye cannot detect. Deepfakes, on the other hand, is evolving at a similar rate.

3. People will be able to learn in new ways thanks to AI partners.

When Golden Sparrow was a small child, his parents were murdered in a car accident, and he was put to an orphanage. The workers who took care of him there made him a unique companion, whom he named Atman after his favourite superhero. Golden Sparrow needs special glasses with a virtual reality interface to see Atman. He began to wear them all of the time. Atoman was the ideal companion because he knew everything there was to know about Golden Sparrow, thanks to his data cloud. A biometric ribbon tied to Golden Sparrow's wrist gave a steady stream of real-time data regarding his physiological and behavioural states.

Golden Sparrow's best buddy, Atoman, assisted him with his studies, answered his problems, and planned adventures for him. Above all, he talked to Golden Sparrow all the time — the perfect conversation partner for a lonely young boy.

The main point is that AI companions will assist individuals in learning in innovative ways.

Even if most individuals don't have a virtual companion like Atoman, many have engaged with AI assistants — for example, having a discussion with an automated assistant when making a travel reservation.

For decades, computer scientists have been attempting to give machines the ability to communicate with people. However, until recently, these efforts were hampered by the time and effort required to educate computers on how to respond to conversational instructions. All of that changed in 2017 when Google invented the "transformer." A sequence transduction neural network serves as the transformer. It can discover conversation patterns and forecast what it should say in response to a particular statement without the need for human involvement by analyzing millions of pages of text. The OpenAI institute just debuted its own machine that can produce poetry in any writer's style. It was made by feeding text to the machine that would take a person 500,000 lifetimes to read.

And do you recall how Atoman assisted Golden Sparrow with his homework? These advancements have the potential to dramatically change the educational landscape. Personalized AI "teachers" could provide children with the attention they need in raucous classrooms. Teachers might be able to delegate some of their most time-consuming activities to AI tutors, such as grading papers, assigning assignments, and answering routine queries. Meanwhile, human teachers will continue to play an important role in helping pupils develop emotional intelligence, creativity, and social skills — all of which humans excel at, unlike their AI counterparts.

4. For the COVID generation, AI will change healthcare.

Chen Nan is a member of the so-called COVID generation, which grew up in the two decades following the outbreak of COVID-19, which wreaked havoc on the planet. She can't recall a time when people were unconcerned about getting sick. Every year, COVID resurfaces as the seasonal flu. On their wrists, everyone must wear a biosensor membrane that communicates their physiological data in real-time. Nan recalls her grandparents dying in the first epidemic as a horrific experience, and she is so afraid of becoming infected that she never leaves her apartment.

Delivery bots sanitize whatever she needs and deliver it to her home. Household bots assist her in keeping things tidy. She also works from home. So there's no need for her to leave – unless she wants to be alone. When she's trapped within, how can she build relationships or fall in love?

The main point here is that AI will transform healthcare for the COVID generation.

Chen Nan's story is a hypothetical look at the long-term impact of COVID on people's life. However, one thing is certain: advances in artificial intelligence will be critical in both curing the virus and allowing people to alter their behaviour to prevent contracting it.

Even now, many nations have produced applications that send out notifications when a possibly infected person is nearby, and many countries have established apps that send out alerts when a potentially infected person is nearby. These apps will only grow in popularity, resulting in heated debates about privacy versus safety. People are now forced to use a QR code on an app to prove their vaccination status. Perhaps, in the future, they'll be required to wear biosensor membranes, similar to the ones described in the narrative, that send physiological data and alert them when their vaccine is about to expire. Doctors will increasingly rely on electronic health records when diagnosing and treating ailments as health records become more accessible. In addition, the new software will revolutionize the development of COVID vaccinations.

COVID could have long-term consequences for humanity's mental health and social behaviour. While the majority of individuals will not completely shut themselves off from the outside world, many are already more cautious about where they go and who they see. These behavioural shifts will be aided by AI technology such as delivery bots. However, robots have yet to experience love. People who, like Chen Nan, are desperate for face-to-face contact will eventually have to force themselves to leave their houses.

5. The distinction between actual and imaginary worlds will be blurred by mixed reality.

The seance was held in a dimly lit room with candles flickering and rose petals on the table. Aiko was both elated and terrified. The medium, an elderly woman, began the ceremony. The woman's voice transformed into that of a young man as the table began to shake violently. Hiroshi, Aiko's rock-star idol, had died in unexplained circumstances, Aiko knew.

Aiko was taking part in an "extra reality" (XR) game. It gave her the impression that she was conversing with the man she admired so much. Her XR glasses actually allowed her to see his ghost, which materialized as an apparition when she least expected it. The plot was also precisely matched to her ambitions, anxieties, and interests. That was confirmed by the lengthy questionnaire she'd completed on her smartphone.

Here's the main point: The distinction between actual and imaginary worlds will be blurred by mixed reality.

Aiko's game was so engrossing because it didn't just have virtual reality aspects where she could see an artificial environment through her glasses. Hiroshi also showed up in places she was comfortable with, such as her home or a busy roadway. And he interacted with the elements in her real-world surroundings. Mixed reality is the most recent advancement in XR. It's still in the early stages of development because it necessitates advanced technology that allows for object detection in a scenario as well as natural language skills. However, in the next twenty years, it will become much more prominent, blurring the border between fiction and reality.

The use of these technologies will feel much more natural and smooth than it does now, thanks to innovations like XR contact lenses and invisible, built-in earbuds. Haptic gloves and bodysuits will let gamers feel hot or cold, as well as imitate touch.

Immersive games, such as the one Aiko was playing, are a logical use for this technology. However, they might be used to recreate battle situations as part of military training exercises, to allow new surgeons to practice their skills on a virtual patient, or to allow students to "meet" historical personalities in the classroom.

XR has a lot of potentials to change the way we play, learn, and work. It can, however, be abused. When users wear XR glasses all day, they're given an app to access all of their data and collect personal information about them. We need to consider what happens to such data critically and adopt legislation to preserve user privacy.

6. Self-driving cars have the potential to alter our transportation networks, but perfecting the technology is difficult.

Chamal manoeuvred his vehicle across the streets of Colombo, Sri Lanka, from his training centre cockpit. What is his mission? Tourists are rescued from a terrorist attack at a well-known shrine. Even self-driving cars can be thrown off by calamities that alter the course they've been trained to take, so he assisted in guiding it to safety. He collected carloads of fearful, befuddled visitors as he weaved through plumes of smoke on his way to the temple, piloting them through the chaotic streets to their hotel. As gunshots rang out in the distance, he felt the shakes.

The main point is that self-driving car have the potential to change our transportation networks — but getting the technology right is difficult.

For decades, developers have struggled to create totally self-driving cars. Driving is, in truth, a highly difficult activity. Assume you're getting into your car and getting ready to travel somewhere. To scan the scene and check for impediments, you'll need to employ your sense of perception. As you determine where to turn to go to your destination, you'll also require great navigation and planning skills. You'll have to keep a close eye on other drivers and guess what they're going to do. And you'll have to make split-second decisions on what to do all of the time.

Even the most sophisticated computer would struggle to replicate these abilities. When you're driving, there are so many things to consider. It could be severe weather, there are roadworks, or a dog has run into the roadway. How do you equip a robot to deal with all of these possible scenarios?

This AI venture, unlike others, has huge risks. You might see an unsuitable ad if Facebook gets its algorithm wrong, but an autonomous car with a technology flaw might kill someone. Human drivers, on the other hand, do not have a good track record. In fact, car accidents claim the lives of almost 1.35 million people each year. When self-driving cars are completely functional, that number may drop.

Using augmented reality spectacles that recreated the surroundings around the car on a huge screen, Chamal was able to steer the car to safety from a virtual place. For the time being, one option to make autonomous cars safer is to use human drivers at a distance. Another option is to fundamentally alter the design of our highways and towns. Consider smart roadways that can interact with cars in real-time, or roads that are separate for pedestrians and cars. Perhaps this concept will become a reality in the future.

7. Humanity faces an existential threat from autonomous weaponry.

Marc went insane with grief after his wife and son died in a California wildfire. But the sadness quickly evolved to wrath. The conflagration was caused by climate change, which was exacerbated by a world obsessed with technological advancement at any cost. Marc was a physicist who was working on a quantum computer model. He made the decision to use his abilities and knowledge to turn off the world that had caused him so much suffering.

He designed advanced drones that could fly through the sky like a flock of birds, and he used them to assassinate business leaders and other climate change, contributors. He also targeted important ports, wreaking chaos by shutting down the oil supply totally.

The main point is that autonomous weapons are a threat to humanity's survival.

This scenario may seem fantastical, yet drones similar to Marc's already existed. In reality, the Israeli military has created a drone that can detect and kill a specific target by detonating an explosive. Even the most basic drones can be a threat. President Nicholás Maduro of Venezuela was recently nearly assassinated by two drones that dropped bombs while he was giving a speech. As global countries compete to develop the fastest and most lethal weapons, autonomous weapons have sparked a new arms race throughout the world.

Nuclear weapons, of course, have long had the capability of annihilating large populations. They have, nevertheless, served as a deterrent to combat. Knowing that big states have nuclear weapons has deterred them from attacking one another. Autonomous weapons, on the other hand, can be used without being detected. It's tough to retaliate if no one knows where they originated from. There is no deterrent effect, hence there is no deterrent effect. Furthermore, they can be used by terrorists, such as Marc in the narrative, who seek to create chaos or start a war.

Autonomous weapons will only get more lethal as AI improves and accelerates thanks to improvements in quantum computing. As a result, it's critical to find strategies to protect humanity from the potential consequences. Some proposed remedies include requiring human mediation or outright banning these types of weapons, similar to how chemical weapons have been outlawed. None of these proposals will be simple to adopt since they require widespread agreement. However, we must act immediately.

8. Automation is causing a labour shortage.

Hundreds of workers demonstrated in front of Landmark offices, one of the country's top construction firms. Thousands of people worked for the corporation, all of them were going to lose their employment. What is the explanation for this? Workers would be rendered obsolete if AI workers could accomplish the same jobs faster and for free. They were registered in an "employment restoration" company as part of their settlement, which promised to retrain them and provide them new work. However, this employment was generally low-paying or far away from their families. Their lives have been turned upside down by AI's displacement.

Here's the main point: Automation is causing a labour shortage.

Today, an increasing number of businesses are replacing their employees with AI alternatives, with menial and entry-level occupations being the most vulnerable. Because these positions are generally held by people who already work for minimum wage, AI will only deepen the divide between the rich and the poor. Computers trained to assemble standardized parts will increasingly take over occupations like plumbing.

This enormous exodus of employees will have far-reaching consequences. People will lose not only their paychecks but also the social connection and sense of purpose that a meaningful job can provide. Imagine spending a lifetime honing your abilities just to have a machine outperform you after only a few weeks on the job! Alcoholism, depression, and suicide have all been related to unemployment. This will have catastrophic consequences on such a large scale. Measures like the Universal Basic Income could provide a financial cushion while also assisting in the redistribution of some of the massive profits generated by job automation. However, this does not address the issue of providing people with meaningful jobs. To do so, we'll need to invest in human training to perform tasks that AI will never be able to match.

When it comes to jobs that don't involve imagination, such as data analysis, AI excels. Humans, on the other hand, are capable of innovative thinking. We may make connections between abstract topics, apply common sense, and create our own assignments. Any task that necessitates these abilities will always necessitate human intervention.

Humans also outperform AI when it comes to emotions like empathy and compassion. While an AI nurse may be just as good at dispensing pills as a human, he won't be able to express concern in the same manner. As a result, human intervention will always be required in the caring profession.

One of the most effective methods to assist people who have been displaced by AI is to assist them in retraining in order to find new ways to apply their distinctively human skills.

9. To some extent, AI can improve your happiness.

Victor had amassed a fortune through his own efforts, yet he was bored and miserable. So he leapt at the chance for some much-needed excitement when he was invited to a mysterious island in Doha. However, when he landed on the island, he was forced to give computer access to all of his personal information, and he soon realized what it had been used for. His every need and wish was catered to before he even had to ask. He was waited on hand and foot by a robot. His favourite music was always playing, and his room was filled with all of his favourite things. He was overjoyed at first. But he soon became bored, tired of being delighted all of the time.

The main point is that AI can help you be happier — to a degree.

AI can figure out what foods you enjoy and what political opinions you hold. Is it, however, capable of making you happy? Victor's data was examined by AI in order to enhance his satisfaction. However, the beneficial outcomes were just temporary. It satiated his hedonistic desires, but it didn't help him address his more fundamental needs.

So, what makes you happy? Abraham Maslow proposed a hypothesis in 1943 that claims humans have a "hierarchy of needs." The physiological needs for food and shelter are at the bottom of the hierarchy. Safety, security, and employment are the most important needs, followed by love and belonging, self-esteem, and self-actualization. AI advancements should make meeting the basic physiological needs of the human population easier.

Manufacturing prices will be reduced as a result of the clean-energy revolution, while labour costs will be dramatically reduced as a result of AI automation. No one will have to worry about starvation or homelessness if the benefits of the clean-energy revolution are dispersed evenly throughout society. While the basic demands of Maslow's hierarchy will be met, it's more difficult to anticipate how this new age will meet more complicated desires. Will people still want to achieve self-actualization if they don't have to work? What would make people feel like valued members of their communities and create love and belonging experiences?

AI is a revolutionary technology that will revolutionize the way we live in the next twenty years and beyond, as all of the stories we've heard demonstrate. But it's up to us to figure out how it will play out. Human governments have the power to ensure that AI benefits society as a whole by safeguarding privacy, redistributing profits, protecting the environment, and limiting the use of weapons. It determines our happiness.

The main takeaway from this summary is that AI will drive technological and societal transformations in every aspect of our lives, from how we date to what we do for a living. However, it will be able to power hazardous autonomous weapons capable of destroying civilisation as we know it. This is a pivotal juncture in determining how AI will affect the planet.

Here's some additional advice that you can put into practice:

Learn more about what's going on with your data.

You give giant firms like Google and Facebook free data every time you click on a post or search for a trip. It's valuable, and it may contain sensitive personal data. As a result, start being more cautious about how you disclose your information. Examine privacy policies carefully, and look for a search engine that is free of trackers.